Trump’s tariff can reduce global trade by 3%, exports exports to India, Brazil: United Nations Specialist

PTI reported that the new American tariff regime may reduce global trade by 3 percent and transfer export flows from traditional markets such as the US and China to India, Canada and Brazil.
Pamela Coke-Hamilton, Executive Director of the International Trade Center, warned in Geneva on Friday that there is a possibility of long-term disruption in international commerce and economic integration due to the vengeance of US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff hike-China.
Coke-Hamilton told PTI, “Global trade can shrink up to 3 percent, with significant long-term changes in business patterns and economic integration,” Coke-Hamilton told PTI. “Exports from Mexico – which is highly affected – in Canada and Brazil, and to some extent, with minor benefits rather than India, are transferring from markets such as the US, China, Europe and even other Latin American countries.”
The White House announced a tariff standing on imports last week, including 145 percent levy on Chinese goods. Most countries have been given a 90-day stagnation on “mutual tariffs”, but not China, which responded by implementing its own 125 percent tariff on US imports.
According to PTI, the ongoing tariff is causing widespread regenerations of the supply chains from the ongoing war. With a significant increase in the European Union, Korea and the Middle East and North Africa (MNA) regions, Vietnamese exports from the US, Mexico and China are being redirected.
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Coke-Hamilton cited the apparel field as a prime example. “Clothing is a top industry in terms of economic activity and employment for developing countries,” she said. The world’s second largest apparel exporter Bangladesh will be hit with a 37 percent mutual tariff. If the US measures proceed, it probably declined by $ 3.3 billion from its annual US exports by 2029.
SHe said that to face such a shock to developing countries – this business policy can be from change, epidemic, or climate disasters – they should prioritize diversification, price joint and regional integration.
“There are opportunities for developing countries not only to navigate the time of uncertainty, but to continuously prepare for a long race,” he said.
The early economic modeling developed with the French Economics Research Institute CEPII indicates that even before the latest wave of tariffs and China’s counselors, global GDP can be reduced by 0.7 percent by 2040. Countries such as nations are the most affected in Mexico, China, Thailand and Southern Africa, as well as with the United States.
Meanwhile, the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) in Washington has warned of extensive geopolitical implications. Wendy Cutler, ASPI Vice President and Managing Director, said, “With the announcement of China’s China’s further tariff hike against China’s American imports, it is clear that it is expected that China will take a nap for the first time in this trade war. China is in a long race.”
Katla said that when Beijing symmetrical tariffs have reached the limits of vengeance, it is probably “other equipment in its arsenal” that may be active when stress increases.
“145 percent for sugar imports in the US and 125 percent for the US for the US 125 percent for China – stops the trade of all goods between the world’s two largest economies,” he said.
Daniel Russell, vice -president of ASPI’s International Security and Diplomacy, said that Chinese President Xi Jinping is remaining calm in the midst of crisis, waiting for Trump’s tariff policy under domestic pressure.
“He is betting that Trump’s tariff Tentum would fall under the weight of the US market reaction,” Russell said. “By declaring that it will ignore the future American tariff hike, the Beijing is not trying to win the business war – it is trying to outline it and the outsoeler Trump.”
Russell said that China is chasing a long -term strategic advantage by ending relations with South East Asia, expanding its diplomatic clot, and subtle pressure on American colleagues. He said, “Xi’s visit to South East Asia is part of the strategy to strengthen economic participation, while Washington evacuated its partners and separated their colleagues,” he said.